Simulated GP Results using PTFRF Information

Using the data kindly provided to me by dafrk3in, I decided to simulate what a modern GP (15 rounds plus T8) would look like with the same metagame and match win %s as the PT, the average T8 looked like this (n = 10,000 sims):

LivingEnd 0.0566
Storm 0.0712
Affinity 0.2278
Jund 0.0276
WB Tokens 0.0972
Faeries 0.034
UR Twin 0.8492
Merfolk 0.1446
unknown 0.0
GRTron 0.0682
Abzan 0.989
Scapeshift 0.157
Little Kid Abzan 0.3038
other 0.3838
Burn 0.8394
Infect 1.7248
Grixis Twin 0.0178
Zoo 0.078
Amulet 1.9
UWR Midrange 0.03

Average winners (same n):

LivingEnd 0.004
Storm 0.0022
Affinity 0.0058
Jund 0.003
WB Tokens 0.002
Faeries 0.0026
UR Twin 0.2014
Merfolk 0.004
unknown 0.0
GRTron 0.0046
Abzan 0.0822
Scapeshift 0.0232
Little Kid Abzan 0.0152
other 0.0272
Burn 0.0318
Infect 0.2248
Grixis Twin 0.0002
Zoo 0.0054
Amulet 0.3594
UWR Midrange 0.001

tl;dr:  Infect/Amulet super underperformed at the PT, Twin overperformed significantly.

Edit:  Included the PTFRF metagame:
{'other': 0.12039312039312039, 'Little Kid Abzan': 0.014742014742014743, 'Faeries': 0.012285012285012284, 'Abzan': 0.26535626535626533, 'Infect': 0.0687960687960688, 'Grixis Twin': 0.0171990171990172, 'Affinity': 0.06633906633906633, 'LivingEnd': 0.012285012285012284, 'Scapeshift': 0.029484029484029485, 'WB Tokens': 0.014742014742014743, 'unknown': 0.0, 'UR Twin': 0.04176904176904177, 'Jund': 0.019656019656019656, 'Merfolk': 0.019656019656019656, 'Burn': 0.12530712530712532, 'Zoo': 0.056511056511056514, 'UWR Midrange': 0.029484029484029485, 'GRTron': 0.044226044226044224, 'Amulet': 0.0171990171990172, 'Storm': 0.02457002457002457}

By the Numbers - PPTQs and You!

Motivation

Now that we have attendance data available for the first round of PPTQs, I decided to finally run the numbers on the old system vs. the new one.  I think it's important for players to see how the newly implemented PTQ system impacts their chance of qualification and therefore decided to write up a little function to quantify that.  You can find the function, grindNumber, and the script to generate the graphs presented below on the Github repo I made for this.

Assumptions

Based on the numbers gathered here, the average PPTQ looks to be around 6 rounds of magic with all X-0-2s and X-1-1s making it.  Based on projections on Reddit, the average Regional PTQ (RPTQ) has 74 players which would make it 7 rounds with all X-0-2s and X-1-1s making T8.  For the old PTQs, I assumed an event of 8 rounds with all X-0-2s and X-1-1s making the T8.  You can change the number of expected rounds for the event by inputting the number of expected rounds into the r1 (for PPTQ), r2 (for RPTQ), r3 (for PTQ), or r4 (for GPs, but those are always 15).

Results

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, these results all use the default values of:
r1=6, r2=7, r3=8, r4=15

The first graph I decided to generate using my own data.  I assumed that PPTQs would have around the same level of difficulty as a GPT and the RPTQ would be around as hard as the old PTQs were.  My historic win rate was 80% for GPTs and 70% for PTQs which led to the following results (black boxes represent where the new system is more beneficial than the old one.  For example, according to this graph a player who went to 3 PTQs a season, but can now go to 4 PPTQs is better off under the new system)

EDIT:  HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS
If you averaged 3 PTQs per season last year and can make it to 4 PPTQs this season, you go to (3, 4) [3 on the horizontal axis, 4 on the vertical] and if the box is black that means the new system is better for you.

The rest of this post is just going to be more graphs (hopefully you can read the title to see what numbers are being used)

Conclusions

I think a good tl;dr takeaway from this is that this system rewards good players who aren't able to play in a large number of events, but hurts "grinders" who hit 4+ normal PTQs a season.  I think this is overall a great change, so yay, :P.

Edit 2:  If anyone wants particular numbers run, just post them in the comments and I'll produce the graph for you.

Pro Tour Level Changes After #PTM15

Summary Tables:

New Levels

Previous Levels

Level Change Summary
(This is read as 5 players went from platinum to gold)

Players currently platinum:

Alexander Hayne went from gold to platinum
Ben Stark went from platinum to platinum
Chris Fennell went from gold to platinum
Eric Froehlich went from platinum to platinum
Ivan Floch went from gold to platinum
Jacob Wilson went from gold to platinum
Jared Boettcher went from no level to platinum
Jeremy Dezani went from silver to platinum
Josh McClain went from no level to platinum
Josh Utter-Leyton went from platinum to platinum
Kentaro Yamamoto went from no level to platinum
Martin Juza went from platinum to platinum
Owen Turtenwald went from platinum to platinum
Patrick Chapin went from silver to platinum
Patrick Dickmann went from no level to platinum
Paul Rietzl went from gold to platinum
Raphael Levy went from gold to platinum
Reid Duke went from platinum to platinum
Samuel Black went from gold to platinum
Shahar Shenhar went from platinum to platinum
Shaun McLaren went from no level to platinum
Shi Tian Lee went from gold to platinum
Stanislav Cifka went from platinum to platinum
Sung Wook Nam went from no level to platinum
Tom Martell went from platinum to platinum
William Jensen went from no level to platinum
Yuuki Ichikawa went from no level to platinum
Yuuya Watanabe went from platinum to platinum

Players currently gold

Andrew Cuneo went from silver to gold
Ari Lax went from gold to gold
Ben Friedman went from silver to gold
Brad Nelson went from silver to gold
Christian Calcano went from gold to gold
Christian Seibold went from no level to gold
Craig Wescoe went from platinum to gold
David Ochoa went from platinum to gold
Fabrizio Anteri went from no level to gold
Gaudenis Vidugiris went from gold to gold
Guillaume Wafo-Tapa went from no level to gold
Joel Larsson went from gold to gold
Jon Stern went from gold to gold
Ken Yukuhiro went from gold to gold
"Lars Dam went from no level to gold (MTGO world champ, Calcano pointed out this omission)"
Makihito Mihara went from platinum to gold
Matej Zatlkaj went from silver to gold
Matthew Sperling went from silver to gold
Michael Majors went from no level to gold
Patrick Cox went from gold to gold
Pierre Dagen went from no level to gold
Pierre Mondon went from no level to gold
Robin Dolar went from silver to gold
Samuel Pardee went from silver to gold
Seth Manfield went from no level to gold
Shota Yasooka went from gold to gold
Shuhei Nakamura went from platinum to gold
Timothée Simonot went from no level to gold
Valentin Mackl went from no level to gold
Willy Edel went from platinum to gold

Players currently silver

Adam Jansen went from no level to silver
Adam Mancuso went from no level to silver
Alex Majlaton went from silver to silver
Andrea Mengucci went from no level to silver
Anssi Alkio went from no level to silver
Ben Moir went from no level to silver
Brian Braun-Duin went from no level to silver
Brian Kibler went from platinum to silver
Carlos Moral went from no level to silver
Chapman Sim went from no level to silver
Conley Woods went from gold to silver
Dan Jordan went from gold to silver
David Sharfman went from gold to silver
Denniz Rachid went from gold to silver
Dmitriy Butakov went from no level to silver
Felipe Tapia Becerra went from silver to silver
Frank Karsten went from no level to silver
Frank Skarren went from no level to silver
Hao-Shan Huang went from silver to silver
Jackson Cunningham went from no level to silver
Jamie Parke went from no level to silver
Javier Dominguez went from no level to silver
Jingwei Zheng went from no level to silver
John Sittner went from no level to silver
Jon Finkel went from silver to silver
Jonathan Hickerson went from no level to silver
Jun Young Park went from no level to silver
Justin Cheung went from silver to silver
Kai Budde went from no level to silver
Kai Burnett went from no level to silver
Kamiel Cornelissen went from no level to silver
Kelvin Chew went from gold to silver
Luis Scott-Vargas went from platinum to silver
Lukas Jaklovsky went from gold to silver
Lukas Tajak went from no level to silver
Marc Lalague went from no level to silver
Marcelino Freeman went from no level to silver
Martin Müller went from no level to silver
Melissa DeTora went from gold to silver
Mike Sigrist went from no level to silver
Nathan Holiday went from no level to silver
Neal Oliver went from no level to silver
Nico Bohny went from no level to silver
Oscar Jones went from no level to silver
Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa went from silver to silver
Petr Sochurek went from no level to silver
Rasmus Björklund went from no level to silver
Raymond Perez Jr. went from no level to silver
Raymond Tan went from no level to silver
Roberto Berni went from no level to silver
Samuel Tharmaratnam went from no level to silver
samuele Estratti went from gold to silver
scott Markeson went from no level to silver
Stephen Mann went from gold to silver
Tamás Glied went from no level to silver
Tamas Nagy went from silver to silver
Tim Rivera went from no level to silver
Todd Anderson went from no level to silver
Tomoharu Saito went from no level to silver
Tzu-Ching Kuo went from gold to silver
Vidianto Wijaya went from no level to silver
Wenzel Krautmann went from no level to silver
Yann Guthmann went from no level to silver
Zachary Jesse went from no level to silver

Players who fell off

Alessandro Portaro went from silver to no level
Ali Aintrazi went from silver to no level
Andreas Ganz went from gold to no level
Andreas Nordahl went from gold to no level
Andrejs Prost went from gold to no level
Andrew Cantillana went from silver to no level
Andrew Shrout went from gold to no level
Bo Li went from gold to no level
Brian Demars went from silver to no level
Brock Parker went from silver to no level
daniel Royde went from silver to no level
Dave Shiels went from silver to no level
Dusty Ochoa went from silver to no level
Eduardo Sajgalik went from silver to no level
Elias Watsfeldt went from silver to no level
Emanuel Sutor went from silver to no level
Gabriel Nassif went from silver to no level
Gerard Fabiano went from silver to no level
Gerry Thompson went from silver to no level
Harry Corvese went from silver to no level
Jesse Hampton went from silver to no level
Joe Demestrio went from silver to no level
Jonas Koestler went from silver to no level
José Francisco Silva went from silver to no level
Juan Carlos Adebo Diaz went from silver to no level
Kenny Oberg went from silver to no level
Louis Deltour went from silver to no level
Lucas Siow went from silver to no level
Maksym Gryn went from silver to no level
Matteo Versari went from silver to no level
Matthew Costa went from silver to no level
Matthew Nass went from silver to no level
Matthias Hunt went from silver to no level
Max Sjoblom went from silver to no level
Miguel Gatica went from silver to no level
Mike Krasnitski went from silver to no level
Nicolas Cuenca went from silver to no level
Pedro Carvalho went from silver to no level
Richard Bland went from silver to no level
richmond Tan went from silver to no level
Rob Castellon went from silver to no level
robert Jurkovic went from silver to no level
Roberto Gonzales went from silver to no level
Satoshi Yamaguchi went from silver to no level
Sebastian Denno went from silver to no level
Sveinung Bjørnerud went from silver to no level
Thomas Enevoldsen went from silver to no level
Thomas Holzinger went from silver to no level
Tomek Pedrakowski went from silver to no level
Tyler Lytle went from silver to no level

(Dear starcity, please don't attempt to lift my work without crediting me this year please)

Again

Poor heart, shattered again.  One day someone will pick you, :(.

Team Power Rankings Top 8 - PT Valencia

Team rosters gotten from here:  http://www.gatheringmagic.com/lauren-lee-02192014-teams-at-pro-tour-born-of-the-gods/

General thoughts:

I think teams for this PT will be more important than almost any past event thanks to the delay of the B&R announcement to not even a month before the event.  THis gives such a huge edge to teams that know how to organize, efficently

1)  CFB Pantheon

This is definitely the team to beat coming into the event.  On top of featuring some of the most dominant names form magic history, the team also has Sam Black and Patrick Chapin who, if their is a deck to break in the new Modern format, are the two most likely to do so.  In addition, the team features some of the most dominating names from Magic present and will for sure be the team to beat coming into the event.

2)  CFB

While not as strong in this format as their sister team, the old CFB roster still has some high potential to crush as shown by Wrapter's finals appearance (EDIT:  Erroneously thought Wrapter won PT Philly at first) in the first modern PT (although it did require one of the most improbably sequences of events from Sam Black to accomplish).  Having the #1, 2, and 4 players from the (admittedly flawed, maybe I'll write something about this another day) leaderboard cements this team's strength and, if the PT wasn't modern, I would have put them at #1.

3)  Elaborate Ruse

Third place was a tough call between ER and Revolution, but I think the size of team Revolution and lack of strong catalysts for creative non-control deck building from the team puts ER slightly ahead.  Ruse will be the most underrated team of the event by many, but the team is insanely strong and I fully expect them to put up the results to prove it.

4)  Revolution

I think this team is strong overall, but the sheer size of the team and lacks some cohesion.  Of the top four, this is the team that will either greatly exceed my expectations of them or fall dramatically short, but given their performance in the past I think the former is a more likely result.

5)  TCGPlayer.com
6)  13 Angry Men
7)  Face2Face
8)  MTGMintCard

How the New Pro Tour Top 8 Structure Would Have Changed the Results of Past Pro Tours

Pro Tour Return to Ravnica

Quarterfinals:

Willy Edel vs. David Ochoa

Willy Edel would have won the match 2-1 rather than Ochoa coming back and winning the match after starting 0-2.

Pedro Carvalho vs. Stanislave Cifka:

Same result

Shi Tian Lee vs. Eduardo Sajgalik

Same result

Kevin Chew vs. Yuuya Watanabe 

Same Result

Semifinals:

Shi Tian Lee vs. Stanislave Cifka

Same result

Yuuya Watanabe vs. David Ochoa

This match would not have happened, but if it did under the new rules the same result would have occurred.

Overall Different Results:  1

Pro Tour Gatecrash

Quarterfinals:

Ben Stark vs. Steven Mann

Same result

Joel Larsson vs, Gerry Thompson

Same result

Owen Turtenwald vs. Eric Froehlich

Same result

Melissa DeTora vs. Tom Martell

Same result

Semifinals:

Eric Froehlich vs. Tom Martell

Same result

Joel Larsson vs. Ben Stark 

Ben Stark would have won the match 2-1 and proceeded to the finals vs. Tom Martell.  During the course of the PT, Ben Stark was 2-0 vs The Aristocrats (with one of those wins coming against Martell), so it's somewhat probable that with these rules in place the winner of this PT would have been Stark.

Overall different results:  1 (2 total)

Pro Tour Dragon's Maze

Quarterfinals

Craig Wescoe vs. Andrejs Prost

Wescoe, the eventual Pro Tour winner would have lost 2-1 to Andrejs.  Andrejs instead would have played vs. Utter-Leyton's boros deck in the semis.  During this T8 match, Utter-Leyton tweeted

"This quarterfinal between Prost and Wescoe is a huge sweat for me, don't think I can possibly win against Wescoe"

Utter-Leyton would possibly have a semifinals and finals match against Esper control, where he obviously felt confident about his chances.

Andrew Shrout vs. Josh Utter-Leyton

Same result

Rob Castellon vs. Dusty Ochoa

Same result

Makihito Mihara vs. Matej Zatlkaj

Matej would have won this game in 3, but this would have still left the semifinal match as an Esper mirror.

Semifinals

Dusty Ochoa vs. Makihito Mihara

Mihara would have won the match 2-1.

Josh Utter-Leyton vs. Craig Wescoe

Match would not have happened, but it would have the same result as Wescoe was up 2-1 at the end of game 3.

Overall different results:  3 (5 total)

Pro Tour Theros

Quarterfinals

Jeremy Dezani vs. Kamiel Cornelissen

Same result

Makihito Mihara vs. Paul Rietzl

Reitzl would have won (and Mihara would be 1-1 in terms of how he was affected by the changes)

Sam Black vs. Kentarou Yamamoto

Same result

Pieree Dagen vs. Guillaume Wafo-Tapa

Same result.


Semifinals

Jeremy Dezani vs. Makihito Mihara

Same result

Sam Black vs. Pieree Dagen

Same result

Overall different results:  1 (6 total)

Biggest losers if the new system was used for the last year:  Craig Wescoe, maybe Tom Martell

Biggest winners if the new system was used for the last year:  Josh Utter-Leyton, maybe Ben Stark

tl;dr:  6 matches would have changed with one PT having a guaranteed different winner (as Wescoe would have lost in the quarters) and one having a likely different winner (as Ben Stark was favored against Martell's Aristocrats)

PT Predictions - Let's See How I did

So, I finally got around to dong my PT analysis article today and I wanted to see how my predictions eneded up.  I didn't track how many T16ed in the analysis, but did top 25 instead.  I ended up doing quite well.  Original post here:  http://dieplstks.blogspot.com/2013/05/pt-team-preview.html:


Part of the team performance charts:  http://i.imgur.com/QQl2rZU.png


Team Australia

Predicted members in the T16:  0-1
Actual top 25:  0

Close.

Team Channel Fireball

Predicted number in the T16:  4
Actual top 25:  4



European Union

Predicted number in the T16:  3
Actual top 25:  2


Team Luxurious Hair

Predicted number in the T16:  0-1
Actual top 25:  1 (granted they did have the PT winner as their one member)

Team Rourix

Predicted number in the T16:  1 (it's a small team)
Actual top 25:  0


Team Starcity


Predicted number in the T16:  4
Actual top 25:  3

Shocked they went under, even when we expand to the top 25.  Oh well, :(

Wilson Gone Wild

Predicted number in the T16:  1
Actual top 25:  0

None of the other teams listed really got my interest/hopes of a strong performance up.  This is just unfiltered thoughts so don't judge me and I could be wildly wrong here.  :P

From all the other teams listed by Lauren Lee only twp people from Team Legit and one from NWA top 25ed.