How the New Pro Tour Top 8 Structure Would Have Changed the Results of Past Pro Tours

Pro Tour Return to Ravnica

Quarterfinals:

Willy Edel vs. David Ochoa

Willy Edel would have won the match 2-1 rather than Ochoa coming back and winning the match after starting 0-2.

Pedro Carvalho vs. Stanislave Cifka:

Same result

Shi Tian Lee vs. Eduardo Sajgalik

Same result

Kevin Chew vs. Yuuya Watanabe 

Same Result

Semifinals:

Shi Tian Lee vs. Stanislave Cifka

Same result

Yuuya Watanabe vs. David Ochoa

This match would not have happened, but if it did under the new rules the same result would have occurred.

Overall Different Results:  1

Pro Tour Gatecrash

Quarterfinals:

Ben Stark vs. Steven Mann

Same result

Joel Larsson vs, Gerry Thompson

Same result

Owen Turtenwald vs. Eric Froehlich

Same result

Melissa DeTora vs. Tom Martell

Same result

Semifinals:

Eric Froehlich vs. Tom Martell

Same result

Joel Larsson vs. Ben Stark 

Ben Stark would have won the match 2-1 and proceeded to the finals vs. Tom Martell.  During the course of the PT, Ben Stark was 2-0 vs The Aristocrats (with one of those wins coming against Martell), so it's somewhat probable that with these rules in place the winner of this PT would have been Stark.

Overall different results:  1 (2 total)

Pro Tour Dragon's Maze

Quarterfinals

Craig Wescoe vs. Andrejs Prost

Wescoe, the eventual Pro Tour winner would have lost 2-1 to Andrejs.  Andrejs instead would have played vs. Utter-Leyton's boros deck in the semis.  During this T8 match, Utter-Leyton tweeted

"This quarterfinal between Prost and Wescoe is a huge sweat for me, don't think I can possibly win against Wescoe"

Utter-Leyton would possibly have a semifinals and finals match against Esper control, where he obviously felt confident about his chances.

Andrew Shrout vs. Josh Utter-Leyton

Same result

Rob Castellon vs. Dusty Ochoa

Same result

Makihito Mihara vs. Matej Zatlkaj

Matej would have won this game in 3, but this would have still left the semifinal match as an Esper mirror.

Semifinals

Dusty Ochoa vs. Makihito Mihara

Mihara would have won the match 2-1.

Josh Utter-Leyton vs. Craig Wescoe

Match would not have happened, but it would have the same result as Wescoe was up 2-1 at the end of game 3.

Overall different results:  3 (5 total)

Pro Tour Theros

Quarterfinals

Jeremy Dezani vs. Kamiel Cornelissen

Same result

Makihito Mihara vs. Paul Rietzl

Reitzl would have won (and Mihara would be 1-1 in terms of how he was affected by the changes)

Sam Black vs. Kentarou Yamamoto

Same result

Pieree Dagen vs. Guillaume Wafo-Tapa

Same result.


Semifinals

Jeremy Dezani vs. Makihito Mihara

Same result

Sam Black vs. Pieree Dagen

Same result

Overall different results:  1 (6 total)

Biggest losers if the new system was used for the last year:  Craig Wescoe, maybe Tom Martell

Biggest winners if the new system was used for the last year:  Josh Utter-Leyton, maybe Ben Stark

tl;dr:  6 matches would have changed with one PT having a guaranteed different winner (as Wescoe would have lost in the quarters) and one having a likely different winner (as Ben Stark was favored against Martell's Aristocrats)